UK variant comparison

These graphs should auto-update every day or two, according to when there is new sequence data from COG-UK. You may need to hit shift-reload or some such to defeat your browser's cache.

BA.1 is used as the baseline variant for the first three graphs and BA.1.1 in the last one. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to all three variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straight lines to some reasonable approximation.

Note that growth estimates assume sequenced cases are representative of infections. But if there is a good linear fit over an extended period (say, several weeks) then it seems likely that they are reasonably representative, because most distortions you think of, such as preferential sequencing of a particular variant for a limited time period, or different growth rates in different subpopulations, would often have the effect of knocking the relationship off being linear.