UK variant comparison - Revision history

Alex: /* Self-updating graphs showing current situation */

2023-12-20T21:17:31Z

Self-updating graphs showing current situation

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:17, 20 December 2023
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	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.small.png">]

			[Time of writing: 20 December 2023] Temporary underclassification issue for JN.1. Please ignore December data for the time being.

	[Time of writing: 7 December 2023] JN.1 is now established as the most common single variant, though not yet more frequent than all other variants combined, and will contribute to an increase in infections over the winter. Its estimated growth advantage of 7.4% per day over the baseline variant is moderately high, though going by the crude "it's the square that matters" rule-of-thumb, it is only a quarter as bad as BA.5 which had a 14% or so daily growth advantage.		[Time of writing: 7 December 2023] JN.1 is now established as the most common single variant, though not yet more frequent than all other variants combined, and will contribute to an increase in infections over the winter. Its estimated growth advantage of 7.4% per day over the baseline variant is moderately high, though going by the crude "it's the square that matters" rule-of-thumb, it is only a quarter as bad as BA.5 which had a 14% or so daily growth advantage.

Alex: /* Self-updating graphs showing current situation */

2023-12-07T10:18:19Z

Self-updating graphs showing current situation

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:18, 7 December 2023
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	Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.		Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.

	[Time of writing: 7 December 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 ~~July~~ 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.		[Time of writing: 7 December 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 September 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.small.png">]

Alex at 10:17, 7 December 2023

2023-12-07T10:17:59Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:17, 7 December 2023
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	Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.		Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.

	[Time of writing: ~~5 October~~ 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 July 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.		[Time of writing: 7 December 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 July 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.small.png">]
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	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.small.png">]

	[Time of writing: ~~5 October~~ 2023] ~~HK.3, a so-called FLip variant, is the current frontrunner in terms of growth. The old-guard XBB lineages have upped their game in the form of XBB.1.16.11 and XBB~~.1~~.16.15. BA.2.86* ("Pirola")~~ is now ~~one among several up-and-coming~~ variants~~. It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important~~, ~~which means~~ the ~~current~~ growth ~~estimate~~ of HK.~~3 vs baseline of around~~ 4.3% is ~~not especially~~ high ~~for an emerging new variant. That kind of growth suggests a time-to-dominance (if nothing else were to change) of months~~, by ~~which time some other significant variant will likely have arisen. In other words,~~ it's ~~more like variant soup at~~ the ~~moment than~~ a ~~single stand-out variant~~.		[Time of writing: 7 December 2023] JN.1 is now established as the most common single variant, though not yet more frequent than all other variants combined, and will contribute to an increase in infections over the winter. Its estimated growth advantage of 7.4% per day over the baseline variant is moderately high, though going by the crude "it's the square that matters" rule-of-thumb, it is only a quarter as bad as BA.5 which had a 14% or so daily growth advantage.

	A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).		A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).

Alex: /* Self-updating graphs showing current situation */

2023-10-05T20:42:39Z

Self-updating graphs showing current situation

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:42, 5 October 2023
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	Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.		Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.

	[Time of writing: ~~14 September~~ 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 July 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.		[Time of writing: 5 October 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 July 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.small.png">]
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	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.small.png">]

	[Time of writing: ~~20 September~~ 2023] The ~~following graph shows~~ XBB.1.16* (outgoing), EG.5.1* (baseline) and BA.2.86* ("Pirola", up and coming). It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, ~~and~~ the current ~~value~~ of BA.2.86/EG.5.1 of around 3.5% is not especially high for emerging new ~~variants~~, ~~though there is~~ significant ~~uncertainty in this estimate~~. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to ~~EG.5.1*,~~ the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).		[Time of writing: 5 October 2023] HK.3, a so-called FLip variant, is the current frontrunner in terms of growth. The old-guard XBB lineages have upped their game in the form of XBB.1.16.11 and XBB.1.16.15. BA.2.86* ("Pirola") is now one among several up-and-coming variants. It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, which means the current growth estimate of HK.3 vs baseline of around 4.3% is not especially high for an emerging new variant. That kind of growth suggests a time-to-dominance (if nothing else were to change) of months, by which time some other significant variant will likely have arisen. In other words, it's more like variant soup at the moment than a single stand-out variant.

			A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topfewvariants.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topfewvariants.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topfewvariants.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topfewvariants.small.png">]

Alex: /* Self-updating graphs showing current situation */

2023-09-20T18:50:27Z

Self-updating graphs showing current situation

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:50, 20 September 2023
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	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.small.png">]

	[Time of writing: 14 September 2023] The following graph shows XBB.1.16* (outgoing), EG.5.1* (baseline) and BA.2.86* ("Pirola", up and coming). It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of BA.2.86/EG.5.1 of around 7% is ~~moderately~~ high for emerging new variants, though there is significant uncertainty in this estimate. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to EG.5.1*, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).		[Time of writing: 20 September 2023] The following graph shows XBB.1.16* (outgoing), EG.5.1* (baseline) and BA.2.86* ("Pirola", up and coming). It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of BA.2.86/EG.5.1 of around 3.5% is not especially high for emerging new variants, though there is significant uncertainty in this estimate. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to EG.5.1*, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topfewvariants.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topfewvariants.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topfewvariants.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topfewvariants.small.png">]

Alex: /* Self-updating graphs showing current situation */

2023-09-20T18:29:09Z

Self-updating graphs showing current situation

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:29, 20 September 2023
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	[Time of writing: 14 September 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 July 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.		[Time of writing: 14 September 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 July 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.variantpressure.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.variantpressure.small.png">]

	Another view of the same information is the integral of the above graph shown below (with an arbitrary vertical offset). This allows you to compare two days to see how much the changing variant mixture has increased the growth rate, and also provides an estimate of how much it will increase the growth rate a short time into the future, always remembering that this variant effect on growth has to be added to the general growth (or decline) of all variants to get the overall growth rate of the virus.		Another view of the same information is the integral of the above graph shown below (with an arbitrary vertical offset). This allows you to compare two days to see how much the changing variant mixture has increased the growth rate, and also provides an estimate of how much it will increase the growth rate a short time into the future, always remembering that this variant effect on growth has to be added to the general growth (or decline) of all variants to get the overall growth rate of the virus.

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.growthproj.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topmanyvariants.growthproj.small.png">]

	[Time of writing: 14 September 2023] The following graph shows XBB.1.16* (outgoing), EG.5.1* (baseline) and BA.2.86* ("Pirola", up and coming). It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of BA.2.86/EG.5.1 of around 7% is moderately high for emerging new variants, though there is significant uncertainty in this estimate. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to EG.5.1*, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).		[Time of writing: 14 September 2023] The following graph shows XBB.1.16* (outgoing), EG.5.1* (baseline) and BA.2.86* ("Pirola", up and coming). It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of BA.2.86/EG.5.1 of around 7% is moderately high for emerging new variants, though there is significant uncertainty in this estimate. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to EG.5.1*, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.5.1_XBB.1.16_BA.2.86.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.5.1_XBB.1.16_BA.2.86.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topfewvariants.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/topfewvariants.small.png">]

	= Description of variant pressure =		= Description of variant pressure =

Alex: /* Self-updating graphs showing current situation */

2023-09-15T15:52:04Z

Self-updating graphs showing current situation

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:52, 15 September 2023
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	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.growthproj.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.growthproj.small.png">]

	[Time of writing: 14 September 2023] The following graph shows XBB.1.16* (outgoing), EG.5.1* (baseline) and BA.2.86* ("Pirola", up and coming). It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of BA.2.86/EG.5.1 of around 8% is moderately high for emerging new variants, though there is significant uncertainty in this estimate. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to EG.5.1*, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).		[Time of writing: 14 September 2023] The following graph shows XBB.1.16* (outgoing), EG.5.1* (baseline) and BA.2.86* ("Pirola", up and coming). It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of BA.2.86/EG.5.1 of around 7% is moderately high for emerging new variants, though there is significant uncertainty in this estimate. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to EG.5.1*, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.5.1_XBB.1.16_BA.2.86.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.5.1_XBB.1.16_BA.2.86.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.5.1_XBB.1.16_BA.2.86.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.5.1_XBB.1.16_BA.2.86.small.png">]

Alex: /* Self-updating graphs showing current situation */

2023-09-14T00:43:11Z

Self-updating graphs showing current situation

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:43, 13 September 2023
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	= Self-updating graphs showing current situation =		= Self-updating graphs showing current situation =

	Most of the graphs in this section should auto-update every day or two, according to when there is new sequence data from [https://www.~~cogconsortium~~.uk/~~tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/ COG-UK~~]. You may need to hit shift-reload or some such to defeat your browser's cache. This page is a bit of an experiment/work-in-progress in mixing self-updating content, and comments that apply to a particular version of the dynamic content, with static explanations. (The "Time of writing" tags are an attempt to clarify this.)		Most of the graphs in this section should auto-update every day or two, according to when there is new sequence data from [https://www.climb.ac.uk/ CLIMB]. You may need to hit shift-reload or some such to defeat your browser's cache. This page is a bit of an experiment/work-in-progress in mixing self-updating content, and comments that apply to a particular version of the dynamic content, with static explanations. (The "Time of writing" tags are an attempt to clarify this.)

	<i>Note that the number of sequenced samples has been low in recent months which means that the growth rate estimates presented here are uncertain.</i>		<i>Note that the number of sequenced samples has been low in recent months which means that the growth rate estimates presented here are uncertain.</i>
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	Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.		Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.

	[Time of writing: ~~22 July~~ 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 ~~May~~ 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.		[Time of writing: 14 September 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 July 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_CH~~.1.1.1_EG.1_EG.5.~~1_EG~~.5.1.~~1_FU~~.~~1_GE~~.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.~~2_XBB~~.2.3.3__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.~~1_XBB.1.9.2~~_XBB.1.16_BQ.1.1_EG._FL.~~_FE~~.~~_FY~~..variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_CH~~.1.1.1_EG.1_EG.5.~~1_EG~~.5.1.~~1_FU~~.~~1_GE~~.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.~~2_XBB~~.2.3.3__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.~~1_XBB.1.9.2~~_XBB.1.16_BQ.1.1_EG._FL.~~_FE~~.~~_FY~~..variantpressure.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.variantpressure.small.png">]

	Another view of the same information is the integral of the above graph shown below (with an arbitrary vertical offset). This allows you to compare two days to see how much the changing variant mixture has increased the growth rate, and also provides an estimate of how much it will increase the growth rate a short time into the future, always remembering that this variant effect on growth has to be added to the general growth (or decline) of all variants to get the overall growth rate of the virus.		Another view of the same information is the integral of the above graph shown below (with an arbitrary vertical offset). This allows you to compare two days to see how much the changing variant mixture has increased the growth rate, and also provides an estimate of how much it will increase the growth rate a short time into the future, always remembering that this variant effect on growth has to be added to the general growth (or decline) of all variants to get the overall growth rate of the virus.

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_CH~~.1.1.1_EG.1_EG.5.~~1_EG~~.5.1.~~1_FU~~.~~1_GE~~.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.~~2_XBB~~.2.3.3__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.~~1_XBB.1.9.2~~_XBB.1.16_BQ.1.1_EG._FL.~~_FE~~.~~_FY~~..growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_CH~~.1.1.1_EG.1_EG.5.~~1_EG~~.5.1.~~1_FU~~.~~1_GE~~.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.~~2_XBB~~.2.3.3__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.~~1_XBB.1.9.2~~_XBB.1.16_BQ.1.1_EG._FL.~~_FE~~.~~_FY~~..growthproj.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.growthproj.small.png">]

	[Time of writing: ~~22 July~~ 2023] The following graph shows ~~some of the fastest-growing new variants in the UK compared with~~ XBB.1.16, ~~namely XBB~~.1~~.16.11~~ and EG.5.1. It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of EG.5.1~~/XBB.1.16~~ of around 6% is ~~moderate~~ for emerging new variants ~~(2% would be negligible~~, ~~10% would be high), with possible effects on cases felt~~ in ~~a month or so~~. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to ~~XBB~~.1~~.16~~, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).		[Time of writing: 14 September 2023] The following graph shows XBB.1.16* (outgoing), EG.5.1* (baseline) and BA.2.86* ("Pirola", up and coming). It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of BA.2.86/EG.5.1 of around 8% is moderately high for emerging new variants, though there is significant uncertainty in this estimate. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to EG.5.1*, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_XBB~~.1~~.16_XBB~~.1.16.~~11_EG.5~~.1.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_XBB~~.1~~.16_XBB~~.1.16.~~11_EG.5~~.1.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.5.1_XBB.1.16_BA.2.86.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.5.1_XBB.1.16_BA.2.86.small.png">]

	= Description of variant pressure =		= Description of variant pressure =

Alex at 18:26, 22 July 2023

2023-07-22T18:26:53Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:26, 22 July 2023
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	Most of the graphs in this section should auto-update every day or two, according to when there is new sequence data from [https://www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/ COG-UK]. You may need to hit shift-reload or some such to defeat your browser's cache. This page is a bit of an experiment/work-in-progress in mixing self-updating content, and comments that apply to a particular version of the dynamic content, with static explanations. (The "Time of writing" tags are an attempt to clarify this.)		Most of the graphs in this section should auto-update every day or two, according to when there is new sequence data from [https://www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/ COG-UK]. You may need to hit shift-reload or some such to defeat your browser's cache. This page is a bit of an experiment/work-in-progress in mixing self-updating content, and comments that apply to a particular version of the dynamic content, with static explanations. (The "Time of writing" tags are an attempt to clarify this.)

	~~[Time of writing: 22 July 2023.]~~ Note that the number of sequenced samples has been low in recent months which means that growth rate estimates are uncertain.		<i>Note that the number of sequenced samples has been low in recent months which means that the growth rate estimates presented here are uncertain.</i>

	Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.		Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.

Alex: Update to new set of variants and new date range

2023-07-22T18:24:46Z

Update to new set of variants and new date range

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:24, 22 July 2023
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	Most of the graphs in this section should auto-update every day or two, according to when there is new sequence data from [https://www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/ COG-UK]. You may need to hit shift-reload or some such to defeat your browser's cache. This page is a bit of an experiment/work-in-progress in mixing self-updating content, and comments that apply to a particular version of the dynamic content, with static explanations. (The "Time of writing" tags are an attempt to clarify this.)		Most of the graphs in this section should auto-update every day or two, according to when there is new sequence data from [https://www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/ COG-UK]. You may need to hit shift-reload or some such to defeat your browser's cache. This page is a bit of an experiment/work-in-progress in mixing self-updating content, and comments that apply to a particular version of the dynamic content, with static explanations. (The "Time of writing" tags are an attempt to clarify this.)

			[Time of writing: 22 July 2023.] Note that the number of sequenced samples has been low in recent months which means that growth rate estimates are uncertain.

	Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.		Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.

	[Time of writing: ~~16 April~~ 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 ~~February~~ 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.		[Time of writing: 22 July 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 May 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_BQ~~.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~8_BQ~~.1.1.~~2_BQ~~.1.1.~~8_CH~~.1.~~1_CH~~.1.1.~~1_XBF_DN~~.1.~~1_EG~~.~~1_EM~~.~~1_DU~~.~~1_XBB~~.~~1__DV.1~~_XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16~~_BA~~.~~5_BA~~.~~5.2~~~~_BF~~.~~_BN.1~~.~~_BQ.1~~.~~_BQ~~.~~1.1~~.variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_BQ~~.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~8_BQ~~.1.1.~~2_BQ~~.1.1.~~8_CH~~.1.~~1_CH~~.1.1.~~1_XBF_DN~~.1.~~1_EG~~.~~1_EM~~.~~1_DU~~.~~1_XBB~~.~~1__DV.1~~_XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16~~_BA~~.~~5_BA~~.~~5.2~~~~_BF~~.~~_BN.1~~.~~_BQ.1~~.~~_BQ~~.~~1.1~~.variantpressure.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_CH.1.1.1_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_FU.1_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.2_XBB.2.3.3__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16_BQ.1.1_EG._FL._FE._FY..variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_CH.1.1.1_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_FU.1_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.2_XBB.2.3.3__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16_BQ.1.1_EG._FL._FE._FY..variantpressure.small.png">]

	Another view of the same information is the integral of the above graph shown below (with an arbitrary vertical offset). This allows you to compare two days to see how much the changing variant mixture has increased the growth rate, and also provides an estimate of how much it will increase the growth rate a short time into the future, always remembering that this variant effect on growth has to be added to the general growth (or decline) of all variants to get the overall growth rate of the virus.		Another view of the same information is the integral of the above graph shown below (with an arbitrary vertical offset). This allows you to compare two days to see how much the changing variant mixture has increased the growth rate, and also provides an estimate of how much it will increase the growth rate a short time into the future, always remembering that this variant effect on growth has to be added to the general growth (or decline) of all variants to get the overall growth rate of the virus.

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_BQ~~.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~8_BQ~~.1.1.~~2_BQ~~.1.1.~~8_CH~~.1.~~1_CH~~.1.1.~~1_XBF_DN~~.1.~~1_EG~~.~~1_EM~~.~~1_DU~~.~~1_XBB~~.~~1__DV.1~~_XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16~~_BA~~.~~5_BA~~.~~5.2~~~~_BF~~.~~_BN.1~~.~~_BQ.1~~.~~_BQ~~.~~1.1~~.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_BQ~~.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~8_BQ~~.1.1.~~2_BQ~~.1.1.~~8_CH~~.1.~~1_CH~~.1.1.~~1_XBF_DN~~.1.~~1_EG~~.~~1_EM~~.~~1_DU~~.~~1_XBB~~.~~1__DV.1~~_XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16~~_BA~~.~~5_BA~~.~~5.2~~~~_BF~~.~~_BN.1~~.~~_BQ.1~~.~~_BQ~~.~~1.1~~.growthproj.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_CH.1.1.1_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_FU.1_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.2_XBB.2.3.3__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16_BQ.1.1_EG._FL._FE._FY..growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_CH.1.1.1_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_FU.1_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.2_XBB.2.3.3__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16_BQ.1.1_EG._FL._FE._FY..growthproj.small.png">]

	[Time of writing: ~~16 April~~ 2023] The following graph shows the fastest-growing new ~~variant~~ in the UK compared with XBB.1.5, namely XBB.1.16. It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of ~~XBB~~.1~~.16~~/XBB.1.5 of around 6% is moderate for emerging new variants (2% would be negligible, 10% would be high), with possible effects on cases felt in a month or so. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to XBB.1.5*, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).		[Time of writing: 22 July 2023] The following graph shows some of the fastest-growing new variants in the UK compared with XBB.1.16, namely XBB.1.16.11 and EG.5.1. It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of EG.5.1/XBB.1.16 of around 6% is moderate for emerging new variants (2% would be negligible, 10% would be high), with possible effects on cases felt in a month or so. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to XBB.1.16, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_XBB.1.~~5_XBB~~.1.~~9_XBB~~.1~~.16~~.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_XBB.1.~~5_XBB~~.1.~~9_XBB~~.1~~.16~~.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_EG.5.1.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_EG.5.1.small.png">]

	= Description of variant pressure =		= Description of variant pressure =

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:52, 15 September 2023
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	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.growthproj.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_EG.5.1.3_EG.5.1.4_EG.5.1.6_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.1.16.15_XBB.1.16.6_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.11_DV.7.1_FL.1.5.1_GK.2__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9._XBB.1.16_EG._FL._FY._BA.2.86.growthproj.small.png">]

	[Time of writing: 14 September 2023] The following graph shows XBB.1.16* (outgoing), EG.5.1* (baseline) and BA.2.86* ("Pirola", up and coming). It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of BA.2.86/EG.5.1 of around 8% is moderately high for emerging new variants, though there is significant uncertainty in this estimate. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to EG.5.1*, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).		[Time of writing: 14 September 2023] The following graph shows XBB.1.16* (outgoing), EG.5.1* (baseline) and BA.2.86* ("Pirola", up and coming). It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of BA.2.86/EG.5.1 of around 7% is moderately high for emerging new variants, though there is significant uncertainty in this estimate. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to EG.5.1*, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.5.1_XBB.1.16_BA.2.86.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.5.1_XBB.1.16_BA.2.86.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.5.1_XBB.1.16_BA.2.86.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_EG.5.1_XBB.1.16_BA.2.86.small.png">]

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	Most of the graphs in this section should auto-update every day or two, according to when there is new sequence data from [https://www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/ COG-UK]. You may need to hit shift-reload or some such to defeat your browser's cache. This page is a bit of an experiment/work-in-progress in mixing self-updating content, and comments that apply to a particular version of the dynamic content, with static explanations. (The "Time of writing" tags are an attempt to clarify this.)		Most of the graphs in this section should auto-update every day or two, according to when there is new sequence data from [https://www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/ COG-UK]. You may need to hit shift-reload or some such to defeat your browser's cache. This page is a bit of an experiment/work-in-progress in mixing self-updating content, and comments that apply to a particular version of the dynamic content, with static explanations. (The "Time of writing" tags are an attempt to clarify this.)

			[Time of writing: 22 July 2023.] Note that the number of sequenced samples has been low in recent months which means that growth rate estimates are uncertain.

	Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.		Program used for analysis: [https://github.com/alex1770/Covid-19/blob/master/VOCgrowth/uk_var_comp.py uk_var_comp.py]. See [[#Description_of_variant_pressure \|sections below]] for a description of variant pressure.

	[Time of writing: ~~16 April~~ 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 ~~February~~ 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.		[Time of writing: 22 July 2023. Adjusted variant mixture.] This variant pressure graph shows history since 1 May 2023. For comparison with the present graph, the BA.5 wave reached a variant pressure of 0.29%. The reason for showing a relatively short time interval (two months or so) is that the relative growth rates of new variants are changing, presumably due to the background immunity pattern slowly becoming relatively less favourable to the new variants, so a simple straight-line growth estimate (meaning the exponential linear assumption as described in the [[#Technical_details\|technical details]] section) going back too far in time would overestimate the relative growth rates of the new crop of variants. And going too far forward would underestimate future variant pressure because new variants will emerge that are not accounted for here.

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_BQ~~.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~8_BQ~~.1.1.~~2_BQ~~.1.1.~~8_CH~~.1.~~1_CH~~.1.1.~~1_XBF_DN~~.1.~~1_EG~~.~~1_EM~~.~~1_DU~~.~~1_XBB~~.~~1__DV.1~~_XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16~~_BA~~.~~5_BA~~.~~5.2~~~~_BF~~.~~_BN.1~~.~~_BQ.1~~.~~_BQ~~.~~1.1~~.variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_BQ~~.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~8_BQ~~.1.1.~~2_BQ~~.1.1.~~8_CH~~.1.~~1_CH~~.1.1.~~1_XBF_DN~~.1.~~1_EG~~.~~1_EM~~.~~1_DU~~.~~1_XBB~~.~~1__DV.1~~_XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16~~_BA~~.~~5_BA~~.~~5.2~~~~_BF~~.~~_BN.1~~.~~_BQ.1~~.~~_BQ~~.~~1.1~~.variantpressure.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_CH.1.1.1_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_FU.1_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.2_XBB.2.3.3__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16_BQ.1.1_EG._FL._FE._FY..variantpressure.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_CH.1.1.1_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_FU.1_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.2_XBB.2.3.3__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16_BQ.1.1_EG._FL._FE._FY..variantpressure.small.png">]

	Another view of the same information is the integral of the above graph shown below (with an arbitrary vertical offset). This allows you to compare two days to see how much the changing variant mixture has increased the growth rate, and also provides an estimate of how much it will increase the growth rate a short time into the future, always remembering that this variant effect on growth has to be added to the general growth (or decline) of all variants to get the overall growth rate of the virus.		Another view of the same information is the integral of the above graph shown below (with an arbitrary vertical offset). This allows you to compare two days to see how much the changing variant mixture has increased the growth rate, and also provides an estimate of how much it will increase the growth rate a short time into the future, always remembering that this variant effect on growth has to be added to the general growth (or decline) of all variants to get the overall growth rate of the virus.

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_BQ~~.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~8_BQ~~.1.1.~~2_BQ~~.1.1.~~8_CH~~.1.~~1_CH~~.1.1.~~1_XBF_DN~~.1.~~1_EG~~.~~1_EM~~.~~1_DU~~.~~1_XBB~~.~~1__DV.1~~_XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16~~_BA~~.~~5_BA~~.~~5.2~~~~_BF~~.~~_BN.1~~.~~_BQ.1~~.~~_BQ~~.~~1.1~~.growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/~~UK_BQ~~.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~1_BQ~~.1.~~8_BQ~~.1.1.~~2_BQ~~.1.1.~~8_CH~~.1.~~1_CH~~.1.1.~~1_XBF_DN~~.1.~~1_EG~~.~~1_EM~~.~~1_DU~~.~~1_XBB~~.~~1__DV.1~~_XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16~~_BA~~.~~5_BA~~.~~5.2~~~~_BF~~.~~_BN.1~~.~~_BQ.1~~.~~_BQ~~.~~1.1~~.growthproj.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_CH.1.1.1_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_FU.1_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.2_XBB.2.3.3__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16_BQ.1.1_EG._FL._FE._FY..growthproj.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_CH.1.1.1_EG.1_EG.5.1_EG.5.1.1_FU.1_GE.1_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_XBB.2.3_XBB.2.3.2_XBB.2.3.3__XBB._XBB.1._XBB.1.5_XBB.1.9.1_XBB.1.9.2_XBB.1.16_BQ.1.1_EG._FL._FE._FY..growthproj.small.png">]

	[Time of writing: ~~16 April~~ 2023] The following graph shows the fastest-growing new ~~variant~~ in the UK compared with XBB.1.5, namely XBB.1.16. It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of ~~XBB~~.1~~.16~~/XBB.1.5 of around 6% is moderate for emerging new variants (2% would be negligible, 10% would be high), with possible effects on cases felt in a month or so. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to XBB.1.5*, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).		[Time of writing: 22 July 2023] The following graph shows some of the fastest-growing new variants in the UK compared with XBB.1.16, namely XBB.1.16.11 and EG.5.1. It's the square of the relative growth rate that's important, and the current value of EG.5.1/XBB.1.16 of around 6% is moderate for emerging new variants (2% would be negligible, 10% would be high), with possible effects on cases felt in a month or so. A y-co-ordinate of 0 corresponds to equal number of new cases per day of a variant compared to XBB.1.16, the baseline variant. The purpose of presenting it this way, with a particular chosen baseline variant, as opposed to several variants on an equal footing, is that it means we expect to get straightish lines to some reasonable approximation over a shortish time period (two months, say).

	[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_XBB.1.~~5_XBB~~.1.~~9_XBB~~.1~~.16~~.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_XBB.1.~~5_XBB~~.1.~~9_XBB~~.1~~.16~~.small.png">]		[https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_EG.5.1.png <img src="https://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/UK_XBB.1.16_XBB.1.16.11_EG.5.1.small.png">]

	= Description of variant pressure =		= Description of variant pressure =